Box Office Democracy

Week 22 Preview

Ah, Memorial Day weekend the official start of the summer blockbuster season.  What about The Hunger Games and The Avengers?  Mere spring blockbusters.  They hardly count at all.  Those grosses are basically monopoly money.  Summer movie season is the game of kings.

The Incumbent

It’s going to be sad saying goodbye to The Avengers.  It’s had a hell of a run and should continue to make solid money but It’ll probably get knocked down to about $35 million and that’s just not enough to win Memorial Day weekend.

Opening This Weekend

Men in Black 3: It’s been 15 years since Men in Black and 10 years since the last entry in the series.  Apparently the fine people and Amblin thing we’ve been clamoring for more because here it comes.  The word of mouth on the picture isn’t great and there have been a ton of free or discounted ticket promotions that don’t seem to reveal a ton of faith in the movie.  Those are all completely dwarfed by the massive 4,200 theater release and the high wattage star power of Will Smith.

Chernobyl Diaries: It seems like they’ve been airing TV spots for this for months and I still feel like I know nothing about it.  It appears to be a The Hills Have Eyes kind of movie but set in the ruins of Chernobyl.  It trails MIB3 in theater count by about 1,800 theaters.  It also has fewer theaters than The Avengers, Battleship, Dark Shadows, and What to Expect When You’re Expecting.  I think it can probably outgross most of those movies as it’s a change of pace but it’s not going to finish anywhere near the top of the board.

My Prediction: Will Smith makes movies that make a lot of money.  He hasn’t been the star of a summer action movie in four years and I have to believe there’s a lot of pent up demand there.  You have to go back to 1993’s Made in America to find a Will Smith movie released between Memorial Day and Labor Day that didn’t open number one.  Men in Black 3 is the no-brainer pick.

24 May 2012 ·

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• Week 22