Box Office Democracy

Week 29 Preview

Only one movie is opening wide this week.  Good thing I’m not paid by the word.  Or paid at all.  Great, now I’m sad.

The Incumbent

The Amazing-Spider-Man has a really good chance to repeat but not as good as it might appear.  It made $140 million last weekend but it was helped by opening on a Tuesday and getting a six day run to establish a total.  The three day take was only $62 million.  That sounds like a big number for “only” but it’s far short of the openings for the three Toby Maguire Spider-Man movies and might be a sign that audiences just aren’t into it.  Somewhere in the high $30 million range is probably the ceiling here.

Opening this weekend

Ice Age: Continental Drift: Another animated movie franchise that I have no experience with at all.  They’ve always looked pretty intolerable but they’ve gotten all the way to a fourth movie so clearly they’re giving the people what they want.  It’s also worth noting that each of the Ice Age movies has cleared the $40 million mark in their opening weekend which would place it above my ceiling for Spider-Man.

My Prediction: I’m really in a bind here.  The two things that no one would want to do this year is bet strongly against super hero movies or movies for kids.  There have been a glut of kids movies late and I’m banking on the Ted effect and trusting that parents are sick of kids movies.  I’m also counting on people not being sick of super heroes because I am really banking on a sustained run of The Dark Knight Rises.  The Amazing Spider-Man repeats.

12 July 2012 ·

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